The media is reporting “More virus cases”, “Cases surge”, and raising other terrifying alarms. Or as Chicken Little would say: “The sky is falling, the sky is falling.” But emphasizing just the number of “cases” is very deceptive.
There are key questions that should be asked and reported: “Are our hospitals reaching their capacity limits?” and, “Is the death rate due to the corona virus increasing?” For the USA overall, and in Washington state, the answers are NO and NO!
Some states and counties in the USA are seeing an increase in death rates and hospitals being stressed. However, even in states such as AZ, FL and TX where the death rate has increased, the deaths per capita are 5 to 14 times lower than New York State and below the USA overall deaths per capita.
Washington State virus deaths per capita is about 1/2 the USA overall value.
The number of Washington deaths reported daily peaked at 34 on April 6 and recently the total has increased daily by no more than 15 per day. On July 13 the Washington state data had a daily change of minus 36. That was a correction made after Washington State was caught “cooking the books”. https://www.freedomfoundation.com/washington/wa-dept-of-health-to-stop-counting-deaths-improperly-attributed-to-covid-19/
For CDC data see: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/ and https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/
All this data indicates that the increase in cases reported recently is most likely due to more testing rather than the epidemic getting worse. We are over the hump.
From the data, we now know that children are not likely at all to be seriously affected by this virus and their parents are mostly in an age group that is minimally affected by this virus.
Of course, specialists in viruses call for measures to control the spread of this virus, but we also need to listen to other specialists who point out the bad effects of the shutdowns. The depression and desperation caused by the shutdowns and the media alarmism is causing more suicides, drug overdoses, spousal abuse, child abuse and deferred medical attention.
Since WA is over the hump, there is no reason to continue the severe restrictions on school kids, workers and our general population.
Senior citizens and those with health problems should continue to be very careful, as these are the people shown by the data to be most at risk. WA state and our county should concentrate on protecting these people.
Our state and county should move on to Phase 3 and 4 quickly.
This article by Gene Farr was originally a letter submitted to, but not published by the Port Townsend and Jefferson County Leader. At our request, Mr. Farr expanded upon his original submission.
[For an examination of how Washington’s hospital capacity has never been close to being overwhelmed, please see our article on this point.]
Gene Farr spent a long career in the fields of mathematics, computers and aerospace engineering. For nearly ten years he has volunteered his time as an algebra tutor for the Chimacum schools and Port Hadlock library. He is the treasurer of the Jefferson County Republican Party.
I would like to know the location of the infected persons – elderly in nursing homes? People traveling from outside our area? And what are the ages? They seem to just throw out numbers with no accountability of facts.
Rita,
Details of who has been affected will not be reported because of privacy issues.
There was a listing by age group of people affected in the paper recently. But as I pointed out, just looking at the number of cases does not give one the whole picture and when someone wises to deceive, they use selected facts..
Gene
You’re right – and it’s getting harder and harder to trust their numbers. All I know are doing all they can by wearing masks, etc., but it’s getting pretty old. We’ll all get through this eventually – sooner than later I hope!