Is Jefferson County Health Department Overstating COVID Case Numbers?

Huge breaking news!  Jefferson Healthcare’s response to a Public Records Request just revealed jaw-dropping information: It is using a PCR assay with an absurdly high cycle threshold of 45, calling into question ALL of Jefferson County’s reported COVID-19 cases!  

To understand what this means and why it’s so important requires a deep dive into the world of PCR testing.  Establishment media outlets don’t go there. Instead they rush to trumpet the following sort of claims without investigating details:

Port Townsend woman tests positive for COVID-19.” That’s  the headline of a January 21, 2021 article in The Port Townsend Leader. “The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Jefferson County,” the Leader reports, “rose to 274 Wednesday as Jefferson County public health officials reported a Port Townsend woman in her 40’s had tested positive for the disease.”

What exactly does it mean if someone tests positive? What do these numbers really tell us?

As early as last spring, several concerned Jefferson County citizens began warning the county commissioners and Board of Health that authoritative research was proving PCR test results to be plagued with a high percentage of false positives.  That warning was echoed by Canadian pathologist Dr. Roger Hodkinson [linked here] whose company sells a COVID-19 PCR test.  Oxford University scientist Dr. Tom Jefferson sounded the alarm again in a Daily Mail article, as did a review by the University of Oxford’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine.  Just last week, these concerns were affirmed in new guidance from the World Health Organization.

As Dr. Tom Jefferson explains, these PCR tests “are telling people they have Covid-19 when they do not. In some cases, for example, viral RNA might be present in such very low quantities that an individual is not at all infectious and poses zero danger. In other cases, the swabs might pick up RNA which is so old it is completely dead, as people continue shedding material from the virus up to 80 days after the initial infection.”

Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is a laboratory technique used to detect the presence of ribonucleic acid (RNA) purportedly unique to SARS-CoV-2.  It does this through amplification of molecular material in what are called cycles, with the top numerical end of those cycles known as the threshold (Ct).

In an August 29, 2020 article in the New York Times titled “Your Coronavirus Test is Positive.  Maybe it shouldn’t be,”  the author writes  “Most tests set the limit at 40, a few at 37. This means that you are positive for the coronavirus if the test process required up to 40 cycles, or 37, to detect the virus.” According to Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, tests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk— akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left. “Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive,” agreed Juliet Morrison, a virologist at the University of California, Riverside.  “I’m shocked that people would think 40 could represent a positive,” she said. A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35, she added.  Dr. Mina says he would “set the figure at 30, or even less.”

The article continues: “The C.D.C.’s own calculations suggest that it is extremely difficult to detect any live virus in a sample above a threshold of 33 cycles.”

Dr. Mina posted this chart on October 26, 2020, demonstrating evidence for low probability of transmissible virus with high Ct values, in other words, how running more than 32 cycles can produce a practically meaningless positive test result.  He wrote, “The readout of future positivity (able to detect viable virus by growing on cells) approaches zero once at Ct (nucleocapsid RNA) >32.  Consistent with numerous studies.”

In a July 16, 2020 interview on This Week in Virology, Dr. Anthony Fauci said, “If you get a cycle threshold of 35 or more…the chances of it being replication competent are minuscule.  You almost never can culture a virus from a 37 threshold cycle.  So I think if someone does come in with a 37, 38, even 36, ya gotta say, ya know, just dead nucleotides.  Period.”

Last November a Portuguese court ruled that the PCR test was too unreliable to use it in justifying quarantines.  The ruling relied upon a number of scientific studies, including one by Jaafar et. al, which found that, “when running PCR tests with 35 cycles or more, the accuracy dropped to 3%, meaning up to 97% of positive results could be false positives.” The ruling concluded that, based on the current state of science examined by the court, any PCR test using over 25 cycles is totally unreliable.

Yet another reputable study, by La Scola, et. al, published in the European Journal of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, similarly found that the reliability of these tests drops significantly at 24-25 cycles, and, like the Mina graph, flat-lines at 34 cycles. “[P]atients,” according to the study, “with Ct values above 34 do not excrete infectious viral particles.”

Jefferson County’s Health Officer, Dr. Thomas Locke, has been tight-lipped about the cycle thresholds behind the positive COVID cases his department has been reporting. That is why I submitted my public records request to Jefferson Healthcare to uncover their protocols. They disclosed to me that they are using a PCR assay with a 45-cycle threshold, well beyond the outer limits of reliability.

Someone testing positive in Jefferson County using a 45-cycle threshold that has near-zero accuracy may be labeled a “case” by our health department. A healthy person with no respiratory illness whatsoever can be called a COVID “case”. If a person seeks medical care at Jefferson Healthcare for a stroke or heart attack and then tests positive with this unreliable test, they may be erroneously put in the hospital’s COVID ward and added to county “case” numbers.

The assay being used in this county has been designed to terminate the cycling automatically if the viral load is high.  If it truly functions as intended, one can reasonably assume that not all 274 “cases” cycled up to the 45 Ct.  But we have no idea how many cycles have been repeated on each “case” for the positive test results. 

What’s needed by our Public Health Officer is to report the cycle count for every positive case so it can be individually evaluated, as the Florida Health Department has mandated. Then an overall false positive rate for the county could be more reliably estimated.

“Case” numbers are being used to justify authoritarian policies here and around the globe.  This is institutional fraud on a scale without precedent.  These numbers are being used to terrorize the public into viewing one another as an imminent, potentially deadly, threat.  Our local businesses are being crushed, children’s education throttled, our social engagement eviscerated and futures of young families jeopardized for this colossal mirage of “cases.”  There is a very real possibility that the young generation will never again feel safe in the presence of strangers.

Public health bureaucrats have effectively been given police powers. Censorship has been weaponized by a technocratic elite to the degree that anyone who challenges the official narrative can expect a backlash of demonization, deplatforming and purging from social media and other public forums.  Our own local print media is censoring letters to the editor, even paid advertisements that contain factual data from incontestable sources, if the information differs from that promoted by local authorities. The local radio station is regurgitating those same authorities’ pronouncements as though their veracity is holy and above examination.

Claims of escalating numbers of “cases” are central to maintaining the fear locomotion that demands masking, distancing, quarantines, lockdowns and now, a population-wide clinical trial of an experimental vaccine.

It is past time to hit the pause button, to stop and ask the question— what is going on here?

Jefferson County Still May Have No Deaths From COVID

Jefferson County Still May Have No Deaths From COVID

“Second person in Jefferson County dies from COVID-19” trumpets the January 13 Leader’s front-page headline.
https://www.ptleader.com/stories/update-second-person-in-jefferson-county-dies-from-covid-19,73202

She was “an 80-year-old woman who was being treated in a Seattle-area hospital” since “late October for surgery unrelated to the coronavirus.  Following the surgery, she developed complications which mandated additional hospitalization.

“In early December she became infected with COVID-19 as part of a hospital wide outbreak” and “passed away Dec.26.” Her death was not immediately considered to have been caused by COVID, according to Dr. Tom Locke, Jefferson County’s Health Officer. “[S]tate officials were brought in to investigate the death and determine whether her death should be classified as COVID-related or having to do with one of her multiple previously existing medical conditions.”

This second Jeffco death blamed on COVID-19 is even more dubious than the first, a hospice patient in her 90’s.  In additional to multiple comorbidities, this 80-year-old woman, suffering what appear to have been extremely serious complications from surgery, had not been near Jefferson County for 2 months when she contracted COVID-19. All events surrounding her death took place in the Seattle area.

Below is a letter I wrote questioning Jeffco’s earlier death, which the Leader and Peninsula Daily News declined to publish.  Its closing line appears to be still accurate: “Based on information reported to date, Jefferson County still seems to have no deaths from COVID-19.”


Dear Editor,

I respectfully question the basis on which “Jefferson County just recorded its first death from COVID-19 last week.”

The decedent was “in her 90s and was chronically ill and had been receiving hospice care,” meaning she was already on the verge of death with no hope of cure.  She may have died WITH the virus, but I doubt she died FROM the virus.

This is a classic example of how shifting standards and incentives have inflated COVID-19 death totals.  Coronavirus illnesses like colds didn’t count as the cause of death for hospice patients in years gone by.

But nowadays, “if you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death… anyone who passes away after testing positive for the virus is included in that category,” per Illinois’ Health Director.

Hence our county’s “first death from COVID-19” would be “included in that category…after testing positive” whether or not she had any COVID symptoms hastening her already-imminent departure.

Note how this miscounts (often false) positive PCR tests for the SARS-CoV-2 virus as if they were symptomatic cases of the disease COVID-19, further inflating “case” and death statistics.  Like HIV and AIDS, the virus and the disease are different concepts and should
not be lumped together.

Based on information reported to date, Jefferson County still seems to have no deaths from COVID-19.

— source links —

https://www.ptleader.com/stories/first-death-from-covid-19-reported-in-jefferson-county,72373

https://www.ptleader.com/stories/covid-19-death-linked-to-senior-care-facility,72394

https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/end-of-life/in-depth/hospice-care/art-20048050

https://week.com/2020/04/20/idph-director-explains-how-covid-deaths-are-classified/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1332428342251950087

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it

Adios, Hasta Las Vista for Now…Again

Adios, Hasta Las Vista for Now…Again

Port Townsend Free Press is going quiet for several months. The editor, Jim Scarantino, as in 2019, has to get to work on business responsibilities here and on the East Coast. Due to the COVID lockdowns, there’s a significant backlog needing attention. Plus, he’s going to to be doing a little traveling and enjoying those states within driving distance where one can dine and drink inside a bar and restaurant.

Thanks to everyone who contributed to our humble effort at citizen journalism during 2020: Brett Nunn, Craig Durgan, Gabrielle Guthrie, Gene Farr, Z Cerveney, Steve Schumacher, T.J, Kalas and our “Concerned Citizen of Port Townsend,” whose incisive commentaries we agreed to publish anonymously because she feared retaliation. Your articles were widely read. You made a real contribution to the dialogue in Jefferson County.

And thanks enormously to our readers–those who openly followed our work by commenting, sharing our stuff, or “liking” or “following” on Facebook–and the many more who regularly read our work but don’t want others in Port Townsend to know. Thanks for letting us know you’re out there. Our numbers soared this past year, and it was all because of all of you.

The lawsuit Jim Scarantino filed against Jefferson County for the way it censors and stifles speech in its on-line public forum, its official Facebook page, is proceeding, regardless of other commitments.

See you in a bit. Thanks for your understanding.

Jefferson County Sheriff’s Foundation Steps Up to Help

Jefferson County Sheriff’s Foundation Steps Up to Help

A community partnership between retired law enforcement officers and civilians has been educating seniors and property owners about scams and crime prevention, bringing cheer to those needing a little love, and helping active-duty deputies do their jobs safely. The Jefferson County Sheriffs Foundation was created in 2003 by former Sheriff Mike Brasfield to provide financial support for programs and activities beyond the reach of public funding. As local governments face sharply reduced revenue, the Foundation finds it is needed more than ever.

Ken Przygocki is the Foundation’s new President. He is a former Washington State Patrol sergeant and Detroit policeman. He has two sons in law enforcement, including Brandon, a sergeant with the Jefferson County Sheriff’s Office. The new Vice President is Ryan Lammers, manager of Hadlock Building Supply. They sat down for an interview with Port Townsend Free Press to explain what the Foundation does and its goals for the coming year.

The Foundation is not nearly as well known as other Jefferson County charities. “That’s one of our biggest faults,” says Lammers. “It’s not out there enough.” But its activities are well known to the people it has been helping for nearly two decades.

Educating Seniors and Crime Prevention

The Foundation provides a training entitled, “Introduction to Crime and Fraud Prevention for Senior Citizens.” The program is sponsored by Kitsap Bank. Seniors too easily fall victim to fraud schemes, ranging from scam calls for fake charities to shakedowns that exploit fear of the IRS.  One scam that recently surfaced in Jefferson County involves communications to seniors purporting to be from someone they know in which the caller asks that gift cards be purchased and sent them as a favor or to get them out of an emergency. Another scam targeting seniors is a call or email telling them that a warrant has been issued and they will be arrested unless they pay a certain amount of money.

“If there really is a warrant for you,” Przygocki said, “you can’t buy your way out. If it’s really bad, you won’t get an email. You will get a knock on your door.”

Another scam that targets seniors is an email or call that their grandson has been arrested and funds are needed to get him out of jail. The Foundation stays abreast of the latest scams and covers them in its trainings.

Sadly, seniors and the disabled fall victim to care givers who manipulate them into providing powers of attorney that lead to their assets being cleaned out. The Jefferson County Sheriff’s Foundation seminar teaches the warning signs and steps to take before a vulnerable person finds themselves the victim of crime by someone they thought they could trust.

The Foundation will also provide on-site crime prevention assessments for private residences and businesses. For example, they performed this service for the SKP mobile home park on Anderson Lake Road. A team of four people fully inspected the property and the housing units and advised on placement of cameras, security for windows, removal of shrubbery, placement of signage, formation of a neighborhood watch and other measures.

Crime is sadly increasing in our community, particularly burglaries. On the morning of this interview, a burglary followed by a pursuit in the Tri-Community Area ended only for law enforcement to be called to another burglary and pursuit at Cape George. This comes on the heels of perhaps an unprecedented number of break-ins and thefts from Port Townsend to Fat Smitty’s at the bottom of Discovery Bay. Some of the criminals have been locals, but a large number are from outside the county. Law enforcement sources tell Port Townsend Free Press that Jefferson County has become the target for criminals based in Kitsap County who see this area as easy pickings with less risk of apprehension.

The seminars are provided at no charge. They are offered to any kind of organization, including homeowner and business groups. To arrange one, see the contact information at the end of this article.

Holiday Cheer

Jefferson County deputies dug into their own pockets to help a family that had just lost their father. They reached out to Ken Przygocki to act as Santa Claus to deliver the gifts.

This is something the Foundation hopes to do more of in the coming year. The Sheriff’s Office cannot accept donations, but the Foundation, as a 501(c)(3) charitable organization, can and the donor may get the benefit of a tax deduction. A generous woman recently donated a motor home which the Foundation auctioned for a nice sum of money.

Helping more families enjoy bright moments in dark times is one of the Foundation’s major goals for the coming year.

Helping Deputies Do Their Jobs and Stay Healthy

The Sheriff’s Office operates under a budget set by the Board of County Commissioners. Those funds do not cover nearly enough. The Foundation has provided ammunition so deputies can maintain proficiency with their firearms. It has provided Tac Vests that go over body armor and relieve the stress on spinal columns and back muscles caused by the heavy weight of the gear deputies carry on their belts.

A deputy’s job puts a lot of wear and tear on their bodies. They have to lift people, run through woods, and subdue those who resist arrest or attempt to harm others. The Foundation was able to provide the Sheriff’s Office with fitness equipment to keep those critical bodies strong and fit. They have also provided deputies with a handbook on Washington state law that can be carried with them on patrol.

“Deputies constantly need something,” Przygocki says. “Things break, wear out. The Foundation can help chip in when the need arises and budgets are limited.”

Individuals wanting to target their donations to addressing a particular need or program may do so, Lammers says.

The best way to contact the Foundation is through their Facebook Page at “Jefferson County Sheriff’s Foundation.” Their website is currently undergoing some work.

Zoning Changes Threaten Hadlock Sewer Project

Zoning Changes Threaten Hadlock Sewer Project

I am the chair of the landowners committee pushing for construction of the Port Hadlock sewer. I am very worried the county is getting set to undermine everything we’ve hoped for and the financial commitment we’re ready to make to build the sewer. We are seeing the signs of a bait-and-switch that will betray landowners and cripple the ability of the sewer to enable affordable housing and job creation.

The final design for the Port Hadlock Sewer is still being worked on. I would expect to see it completed early next year. It has been more than 15 years since Port Hadlock was declared an Urban Growth Area (UGA) under the Growth Management Act (GMA). That’s how long the sewer project has been in the works.

A sewer in Port Hadlock could allow our existing businesses to expand, plus there is enough land to attract other businesses and to build more housing. A sewer is the final element needed for full urban development in Port Hadlock. 

This could be highly desirable and provide jobs, affordable housing and more revenue for government. But, it is highly dependent on the development that would be allowed under our Unified Development Code (UDC).

It should be noted that the UDC is a living document. By that I mean that it can be changed per a process in the Jefferson County Comprehensive Plan (Comp Plan).

The Comp Plan is as close as Jefferson County gets to a constitution. It is the framework that the county uses to control growth. Any regulation that affects land use must be in harmony with the Comp Plan.

One issue with the new plan is how the sewer is to be constructed. Previously the sewer was going to use a gravity collection system and a fixed bio filtration system. The new plan is to use a pressure collection system and a modular bio filtration system. This was done to reduce costs and allow the sewer to be built.

This change in the sewer requires a change in the Comp Plan as the Comp Plan contains the wording for the approved sewer design. And here’s where this alarming problem has reared its head.

Cause for Concern

What’s happening, as I will explain, is that the very development density we need to provide affordable housing and increased commercial activity–the very density that will be needed so landowners can pay for the sewer–may be sacrificed for sake of open spaces and greenways that will take the place of apartments, parking lots and business buildings.

Here we go: Any changes to the Comp Plan must be initiated by a request from either an individual or a department of Jefferson County. The Jefferson County Department of Community Development (DCD) wrote such a request, dated March 2020 to the Board of County Commissioners, Planning Commission and other parties. This letter contained numerous items including item “3. Port Hadlock Sewer Redesign Comprehensive Plan Amendment” and item “5. Port Hadlock Urban Core Revitalization Subarea Plan.”

Item 3, as expected, was the sewer design changed to lower the cost of construction.

Item 5, however, is something completely different, and very concerning to landowners. Basically, the DCD is requesting that the existing development regulations for the sewered areas of Port Hadlock be changed. 

Contained in item 5 is the following wording: There is a likelihood that those zones and uses can be revised to reflect current conditions and aspirations for an attractive urban core, complete with design standards and considerations of developing public amenities such as multi-modal trails and sidewalks, outdoor recreation areas and areas for future residential and commercial development with an emphasis on environmental sustainability.”

What does this mean? It means that once the property owners commit to paying $15M for a sewer then the county can pull the rug out from under them and change the zoning to restrict their ability to use, develop and make some money from their land and sewer investment. Instead of dense residential development that will provide affordable housing in multi-story apartments, townhomes, tiny houses and row homes, the DCD wants more parks and undeveloped spaces where no one can live except in a tent. 

The $15M is the amount that the property owners would pay and once they agree to a Local Improvement District (LID) there is no going back. The county can change the zoning afterwards to whatever it wants.

Not only did the DCD write the March 2020 letter but they wrote two others like it, showing how intent they are on zoning changes that will hurt landowners and cripple the sewer’s benefits. One was written August 11, 2020 and another on September 2, 2020. Basically, they reiterated their desire to change the existing zoning.

This action by the county could be quite detrimental to existing property owners. No one in their right mind would agree to a LID only to have their zoning change to something unknown. The whole point of the sewer is to allow urban zoning and urban development, not more outdoor recreation areas.

Please note that the DCD did not send this letter to any of the property owners in the area to get the sewer. In other words, the county did not deem it fit to let the people who would pay for the sewer know that they are planning on changing their zoning.

Jefferson County is already mostly characterized by green belts, forests and parks. Port Hadlock has parks that have been closed to the public. I speak of Chimacum Park that has been closed for years. There are other parks that have not been fully developed, such as Irondale Park, H.J. Carroll Park, Oak Bay Park and land where the log dump used to be.

What we need is land that can be developed to its maximum potential for housing, and commercial and industrial development. This is how jobs and housing are created and businesses expand.

This is not the time to add costs to our local businesses and handcuff them in their ability to develop their land to create affordable housing and jobs. Our job base is shrinking terribly, depriving young people of hope and futures. We have a real housing crisis. We need denser development on a new sewer system to have any hope of solving these crises. The current Port Hadlock Urban Growth Area zoning has already passed muster with the Growth Management Hearings board and should be retained as is.

 

Are Your Children Getting The Education You Paid For?

Are Your Children Getting The Education You Paid For?

When the Port Townsend School District reopened the doors in September 2020 my family opted out of in-classroom learning. We opted back in at the beginning of November. My youngest was happy to return to Blue Heron Middle School even if it was for only two days a week. She attended a total of five days before the school closed because of rising COVID cases in the county. Everybody went back to distance learning.

Call me a malcontent, call me cranky, or call me somebody who just wants something better for my kids. Over the last several months I have observed the process of online schooling with a sinking feeling in my stomach. I know the teachers are working as hard as they can with what they have. I would like them to see what I am seeing. Staring at a computer screen for most of the day is not good for my children. It is not helping with their social or physical development. It is not generating a desire to be lifelong learners. 

I don’t have the ability to teach my children everything they need to know at this point in their education. I imagine many other parents feel the same. This will be a lost year for many students in our community.  

I look for answers from administrators that are also trying really hard to find a way through this. They offer a barrage of explanations, including assurances that officials are talking with each other regularly, data is being compiled, and statistics are being analyzed. But no one can say exactly what the metrics are for the schools to reopen. Meanwhile our kids fall farther and farther behind.

I am sent lengthy policy statements and a decision tree laying out a pathway to reopening, detailing a process that, if followed to the letter, seems to be practically impossible. 

Like many experiences in this year of “Just Shut Everything Down” I am left wondering what has happened to the can-do approach that used to exist in our culture.

Have we come to a point in history where our only option is to stay home and isolate because anything that might involve the slightest risk is too much of a liability for the powers that be?

I can’t fight the bureaucracy, but I can share the next best option. It is not my idea, but it is a concept that is gaining momentum nationally. I believe it deserves full consideration by our state legislature:

Families should immediately be provided with a refund—a prorated portion of the money that would have been spent by the state in which they reside and by their local school district from the beginning of March through the end of the school year. 

Those dollars should be placed in a restricted-use education savings account that parents could use to pay for virtual tutors, online learning, textbooks, curriculums, diagnostic tests, and other products and services, in order to maintain education continuity for their children during this crisis.

School Districts Owe Parents A Covid-19 Refund, by Lindsey M. Burke Ph.D. writing for the Heritage Foundation.

Washington State’s Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction has a biennial budget of tens of billions of dollars. If there is a surplus because the schools have been closed for most of the year, the funds should be returned to the parents to help them cover the cost of educating their children at home. 

On Friday, December 12th, as a parent in the Port Townsend School District, I received this email from Sara Rubenstein, director of communications, telling me what the future holds.

On Wednesday afternoon Governor Inslee announced updated guidance for schools that may allow Port Townsend Schools to return to our blended learning model at some point in January or February, as well as resume some other school activities. We will make these changes no sooner than January 19th and most likely at the end of the semester if our county Health Department can support these changes. We will update families in early January as we see updated information on the case numbers and positivity rates after the holidays.

Maybe January 19, more likely the end of the semester – January 29th. maybe February. Maybe.

We have paid full fare for public schools and are receiving part-time learning. Our state representatives and the Superintendent of Public Instruction need to be told that the system is not working. They have the power and the responsibility to return any surplus funds. What we can do as parents is to make it clear to our elected officials that if they aren’t willing to find a better way to educate our children in a crisis, we are more than happy to lead the way.